Civic Alert Presents: New Hampshire Primary Predictions

Well, we’re less than 24 hours away from the results of the New Hampshire primary, and we here at Civic Alert know that you’re excited, not only for the assuredly exciting results, but also for our Civic Alert Liveblog of the primary. Like we did for Iowa, all four writers here at Civic Alert will be providing you with up-to-the-minute reports on the results from the Granite State. So whether you’re separated from a t.v. or radio and want to follow the coverage, or would just like a witty, humorous and helpful supplement to increase your primary enjoyment, make sure you join us right here tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 7:00 p.m. Central for the Civic Alert New Hampshire Liveblog.

If you can’t wait that long, don’t worry, because our expert team of writers have pooled together their incredible political experience to accurately predict the winners and losers before the first vote is even placed. In other words, we’re guessing. To get an idea of how we think tomorrow night will end up, continue on past the jump for our Granite State predictions.


I think New Hampshire won’t be nearly as surprising as the Iowa caucus ended up. From the Democrat side, I would be shocked to see anything but an Obama first place finish, followed by Hillary in second and Edwards in a close third. Obama is soaring off of the momentum from winning Iowa right now, and with the added support of New Hampshire’s 40% independent population, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him beat Hillary by double-digits. While I do expect Hillary to do better in the state that made her husband the “Comeback Kid” in 1992, I wouldn’t put a very close third place finish by John Edwards out of the question. It might be just what he needs to take another second place win away from Hillary in the upcoming Nevada caucuses.

1. Barack Obama – 39%
2. Hillary Clinton – 28%
3. John Edwards – 25%
4. Bill Richardson – 8%

As always, the Republicans are a little harder to call. While I’m going to side with everybody else and say that McCain will take first simply because the strongly independent New Hampshire loves the man, I don’t think it’ll be a runaway victory. With the quite likely possibility that McCain will lose much of the independent vote to Obama, I expect Mitt to have a much closer second place finish than he did in Iowa. Bringing up third place will be a close race between Giuliani, Paul, and Huckabee. I’m going to say that Giuliani will prevail because of New York City’s proximity to New Hampshire and because northeasterners simply don’t know who Mike Huckabee is. If Huckabee is lucky, he won’t take fifth, which would be huge blow to the momentum he received from Iowa.

1. John McCain – 32%
2. Mitt Romney – 28%
3. Rudy Giuliani – 13%
4. Mike Huckabee – 12%
5. Ron Paul – 11%
6. Fred Thompson – 4%
7. Duncan Hunter – Please


1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards

1. John McCain
2. Mitt Romney
3. Mike Huckabee/Ron Paul toss up

Why New Hampshire will be important: The differences between Iowa and New Hampshire make this almost a completely new race. Replace evangelical Christian conservatives with economic-oriented independents. The differences in population and issues leads New Hampshire voters to place less emphasis on the results of Iowa and more on their own, varying opinions. Take 2000 for example. George Bush rocked Iowa, then got pummeled by McCain in New Hampshire. This makes for a volatile, unpredictable primary that is sure to have some twists. Yet I still followed the trend and put Obama and McCain and the top. Why? Perhaps some wishful thinking. But also, both have traits that draw in the independent votes, as Obama proved in Iowa. I think we will see these candidates triumph, but witness more variances in the runner-ups, with maybe even a burst of Ron Paul energy in this libertarian heavy state. Still, with another pivotal state putting Romney and Clinton on the back burner, I think their campaigns will need to hurry up and rethink their strategies in order to hold out in the rest of the race.


For the Dems, I see Barack Obama continuing to widen his lead over Hillary in the New Hampshire primary. The latest CNN poll shows him at 39% but I think he’ll break 40%. Hillary will continue to fall and I feel that will give support to both Obama and Edwards. No surprises with the lower-tier Democratic candidates. Fourth place will probably go to Richardson with about 5%.

1st- Barack Obama 44%
2nd- Hillary Clinton 28%
3rd- John Edwards 22%
4th- Bill Richardson 4%
5th- Dennis Kucinich 2%

The Republican race could be much closer. The crypt keeper John McCain is in a good position to win in New Hampshire, just as he did in 2000. Romney again will come in a disappointing 2nd place. Just as in the Iowa Caucus, there will be a battle for 3rd. This time between Ron Paul, who I expect to improve on his 10% performance in Iowa, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee, whose Huckaboom just hasn’t caught on yet in New Hampshire.

1st- John McCain 35%
2nd- Mitt Romney 26%
3rd (My big upset pick) Ron Paul 16%
4th Mike Huckabee 13%
5th Rudy Giuliani 8%
6th/7th Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson will split the last 2%

Who will be triumphantly right and who will be embarrassingly wrong? Join us tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central for our New Hampshire Liveblog to find out.


13 Responses

  1. I would love to add my comments, but as I was the last one to the party, I think saying “Obama/McCain” for the fourth time might get redundant. I think Romney will be a very close second however, he isn’t out of this race at all.

  2. Though I think(and hope) that in no way will Hillary win NH, I think the race will be a lot closer than the polls are showing as of now. Just a gut feeling….

  3. what do you think of dominion theology?

    what is mikes position given he co-authored a book with George Grant?

  4. I don’t think Dominion Theology should be used because I’m sure there are plenty of people in America that would love to use their religion’s laws, not just Christians, we are not cohesive enough to warrant having our law based solely on one religion. Dominion Theology is far too radical. The book they wrote
    was about shootings by young people, I am not certain whether or not it said anything about Dominion Theology, so I can’t give you the answer to what Mike’s position is. However, when talking about his political decisons Huckabee has said, “In essence, I can say that I have one client I have to please,” meaning God. So maybe he isn’t too far from Dominion Theology. This is a good read regarding faith and Huckabee

  5. I think there is just enough concern here that we should examine Dominonists, and Huckabee’s ties to them. (plural) and what he really thinks.

    Quote from the co-author of his book:

    Grant’s 1987 book “The Changing of the Guard” (Ft. Worth, TX: Dominion Press, 1987), pp. 50-51.

    “Christians have an obligation, a mandate, a commission, a holy responsibility to reclaim the land for Jesus Christ to have dominion in the civil structures, just as in every other aspect of life and godliness. But it is dominion that we are after. Not just a voice. It is dominion we are after. Not just influence. It is dominion we are after. Not just equal time. It is dominion we are after. World conquest. That’s what Christ has commissioned us to accomplish.”

    are you not a littel uncomfortable with that?

  6. Yes of course, Huckabee’s religious fanaticism has always been why I am terrified of the prospect of getting the nomination. But let’s not be too hasty, Huckabee had nothing to do with “The Changing of the Guard,” he wrote a book with Grant on violence and kids. While it is uncomforting that he wrote a book with someone that promotes Dominion Theology, it doesn’t mean that he is a propent of it, although I wouldn’t doubt it in the least if Huckabee was.

  7. Curt… I agree.

    we should not pass on guilt by association. let him speak for himself.

    i just wish someone in the media would ask him directly about it.

  8. Well, if he gets the nomination, I’m sure there will be plenty of questions about his faith. But let’s hope we don’t get to that point right?

  9. I don’t know man, doesn’t he have to win? I mean, he has God on his side!

  10. Well, with 10% of the precincts reporting, its safe to say these predictions are wrong

  11. With 10% reporting, it isn’t safe to say anything.

  12. Its safe to say Gravel is done.

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