Two Numbers That Matter for March 4th

Hey everyone, here’s a guest post from our friend Graison:

As Hillary Clinton might say, I’m not in the predictions business. But the votes of two populous groups from last night’s Wisconsin primary—the working class and those without college degrees—might prove useful to predict how Ohio Democrats will vote March 4. In Wisconsin both groups decidedly selected Barack Obama. Until now such voters–especially the working-class–were Clinton’s firewall against Obama’s growing coalition of young people, college graduates and high-income earners. Here’s the breakdown of the two groups:

Vote by Education      Clinton Obama
No College Degree          43%     56%
College Graduate            39%     60%

Vote by Income     Clinton Obama
Less than $50,000   44%     54%
$50,000 or more      39%     60%

Senator Clinton cannot be happy with these numbers. Just a few weeks ago she led Obama by considerable margins in the working-class demographic regardless of state; often pundits drew a distinction between Obama’s base of “latte-liberals” and Clinton’s own of “Dunkin Donut-Democrats.” They can say that no more. With the fading manufacturing bastion of Ohio suddenly contestable after months of polls showing Clinton landslides—and with its battleground status in the general election—you can expect to see plenty of factory visits by both campaigns in the next couple of weeks.


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