Why Hillary Clinton has already lost

Explaining her calculations

You might have been confused if you tuned in to watch Senator Hillary Clinton’s concession speech last night.

“We’re going strong and going all the way,” she said, addressing a rally of supporters. It was an unconventional take on a type of speech that is usually, well, more concessionary.

It turns out she wasn’t giving a concession speech—but she should have been. Though Senator Clinton won the popular votes in three of last night’s four nominating contests, Senator Barack Obama is projected to tie (or even win) in counts of delegates, the representative electors who cast ballots for their respective candidate at the national convention. This result is expected for two reasons:

(1) Clinton’s win in Rhode Island netted approximately three delegates, the same amount gained by Obama in his Vermont win, canceling any impact on the total count;

(2) Her win in Ohio, according to MSNBC political director Chuck Todd, will bring her another five to nine delegates, but the allocation of delegates and hybrid-caucus system in Texas are likely again to award a canceling amount of delegates to Obama. In short, the contests’ net affect is almost nothing.

Senator Clinton’s failure to narrow Obama’s delegate lead last night leaves her a statistically insurmountable lead to overcome in the rest of the schedule, according to Newsweek Senior Editor Jonathan Alter. Alter explains that a scenario in which Clinton wins the remaining twelve states by margins larger than ten points (this is unlikely for either candidate; Alter stacked the model in her favor to make his point), the race “still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton,” a 58-delegate lead.

In other words, Clinton needed to cover some real ground last night and did not. The remaining states on the calendar, save Pennsylvania, have demographics that largely favor Senator Obama. Her hopes lie largely in prolonging the race until she can switch enough Superdelegates to her side to overcome the popular vote, or make renewed efforts to seat discounted Florida and Michigan delegates. She has plenty more of those concession speeches to make before that happens.

Hillary’s Math Problem – [Newsweek]

Advertisements

One Response

  1. […] Constitution to Reflect God’s StandardsWhy John Edwards Might Get to Pick Who Wins the ElectionWhy Hillary Clinton has already lostWilliam F. Buckley Jr., 1925-2008Rush Limbaugh backs Hillary Clinton?Trade You a Clinton for an […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: