The Indiana primary is more important than it looks on paper. The Hoosier state will elect seventy two pledged delegates in its May 6 primary, totaling 187 delegates when combined with North Carolina’s delegates that are up for grabs the same day (nineteen more than Pennsylvania’s April 22nd primary will award). And while poll averages show Senator Barack Obama leading Senator Hillary Clinton by double digits in the Tarheel state–and while Clinton holds similar margins over Obama in Pennsylvania–Indiana is evenly matched. Obama has an advantage due to Chicago media outlets’ proximity to northwest Indiana; Clinton has been endorsed by and campaigns with Senator Evan Bayh, a former governor and popular figure in state politics.
What does this mean? With its even odds Indiana is a good place to monitor the performance of both campaigns. If Obama wins he will erase any potential gains made by Clinton in Pennsylvania and possibly lock up the 1,627 delegates necessary to secure the nomination, according to Newsweek’s Andrew Romano. If Clinton wins she will likely gain no net delegates but will claim political capital enough to keep the race going into June. According to Mr Romano the “conflict-obsessed media will put more stock” in results of such a close race, magnifying further the momentum of who Indianans choose at the polls. As if the Superdelegates weren’t already watching.
Indiana Shapes Up as a State of Parity for Democrats – [Washington Post]
Could Clinton Drop Out on May 7? – [Stumper, Andrew Romano’s Newsweek blog]